What's at stake when the Red Sox and Yankees square off at Fenway Park this weekend?
The Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees will play an extremely meaningful series at Fenway Park this weekend, a potential preview of an even more meaningful series the two teams might play come October.
The longtime rivals are hurdling toward a Wild Card matchup in the MLB playoffs, though there are still a few things to sort out before we get to another thrilling Boston-New York October showdown. But the fact the Red Sox are playing an important series against the Yankees in September is reason to celebrate.
Fenway Park will have it turned up to 11 this weekend as the two rivals are neck-and-neck in the American League Wild Card race. The Yankees hold a half-game lead over the Red Sox entering the three-game set in Boston. A Red Sox-Yankees series hasn't felt this important since 2021, when the two teams went 10-9 against each other in the regular season and then matched up in the AL Wild Card game, which Boston won, 6-2, at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox have won 39 of the regular-season meetings since the start of the 2021, while the Yankees have taken 35 games over that stretch. It hasn't been as evenly matched this season, with the Red Sox absolutely owning their rival in 2025.
But Boston cannot afford a slipup this weekend at Fenway Park.
What's at stake this weekend for the Red Sox and the Yankees?
The Red Sox are 8-2 against the Yankees this season and already own the tie-breaker should they finished with identical records by season's end. But all that matters right now are these next three games.
Those eight wins aren't going to mean much for the Red Sox if the Yankees win this current series and end up hosting all three games in the Wild Card round next month. Home-field advantage is huge for Boston this season, with the Red Sox 44-28 at Fenway Park and 37-38 away from their home diamond.
The math is easy for Boston. Win the series and the Red Sox wake up Monday morning with at least a half-game lead in the AL Wild Card race. A series sweep -- which Boston did to New York at Fenway in mid-June -- would give the Red Sox a 2.5-game cushion with a dozen games to play.
Losing the series would put the Red Sox at least 1.5 games behind the Yankees, and a New York sweep would put them 3.5 games behind for the top Wild Card spot. Boston has a two-game lead over the 79-68 Houston Astros for the second Wild Card spot at the moment, with the Astros set to visit the Braves for three games in Atlanta this weekend.
The Mariners are also 79-68 but sit atop the AL West as of Friday by way of a tiebreaker over the Astros. Seattle will play a three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels this weekend.
A sweep for either the Red Sox or the Yankees would also keep them firmly in the mix for the AL East crown. New York is three games behind Toronto while Boston is 3.5 games back of the division leaders. The Blue Jays host the Orioles for three games this weekend.
Red Sox-Yankees Pitching Matchups
The three pitching matchups this weekend are all rematches from the last time the two rivals played in New York last month. Boston took three of four in that series, as the Red Sox mostly had their way with the Yankees. As you'll see, the Red Sox have their pitching staff lined up perfectly for this weekend's set.
Friday: Lucas Giolito (10-3, 3.38 ERA) vs. Luis Gil (3-1, 3.31 ERA)
Giolito gave up three runs off five hits (including a solo homer to Ben Rice) in his lone start against the Yankees back on Aug. 21 in New York. But the Red Sox came back to win that game, 6-3, thanks to Roman Anthony driving in three runs over the final three innings.
Gil was on the mound for the Yankees that evening and gave up just two runs (only one earned) over five innings, but he also walked five batters. The New York righty has given up just four runs over his last three outings across 16.1 innings, though walks remain an issue for him as he's given out 10 free passes in those starts.
Saturday: Brayan Bello (11-6, 3.12 ERA) vs. Max Fried (16-5, 3.02 ERA)
Bello was downright filthy on Aug. 22 in the Bronx when he pitched five shutout innings, allowed just three hits, and struck out five in a 1-0 Boston victory. The Red Sox have won five straight with Bello on the bump, and seven times over his last eight starts.
Fried gave the Yankees six shutout innings when he pitched against Bello, but Boston won on an RBI double by Conor Wong in the seventh off Mark Leiter Jr. Fried has seen the Red Sox twice this season, and is 0-1 despite allowing just two earned runs over his 13 innings pitched.
Sunday: Garrett Crochet (15-5, 2.57 ERA) vs. Will Warren (8-6, 4.22 ERA)
Crochet will face the Yankees for a fourth time this season on Sunday night, and brings a 2-0 record and a 2.95 ERA against New York into the game. Yankees hitters are batting just .195 against Crochet with 27 strikeouts in his 21.1 innings pitched.
Boston's ace tossed seven innings of one-run ball his last time out against the Yankees. He nearly pitched a complete-game shutout against New York at Fenway Park on June 13 before Aaron Judge ruined the fun with a solo homer in the top of the ninth. But that just set up some walk-off heroics from Carlos Narvaez in the bottom of the ninth.
Warren was roughed up for five runs off seven hits in his Aug. 23 start against the Red Sox, including a solo homer by Trevor Story. He gave up four runs over 5.1 inning in his June 6 start against Boston, but the Yankees were victorious that night, 9-6, because Walker Buehler pitched for the Red Sox.
Everything else to know about Red Sox vs. Yankees
The left side of the Red Sox infield could do some serious damage at the plate this weekend. Alex Bregman has only played four games against the Yankees this season, but has hit .438 (7-for-16) in those contests. Story has driven in a team-high 11 runs against New York with a pair of homers, four doubles, and eight runs scored.
Nathan Lowe had a big swing in New York last time the two teams met, and is hitting .500 (6-for-12) with five RBI in his four games against the Yankees.
Yankees batters are slashing just .218/.290/.380 against Boston pitching this season. Jazz Chisholm has the best average at .286 and three of his eight hits have been homers. He's also driven in 10 runs in his nine games against the Red Sox.
Judge is hitting just .231 against Boston pitching this season, but five of his nine hits have gone for extra bases, with three of those leaving the ballpark. Judge has also struck out 19 times in his 39 at-bats against the Red Sox, with Crochet whiffing the New York slugger nine times. Judge is 2-for-20 against Bello with eight strikeouts this season.
In the battle of the bullpens, the Red Sox have a big edge. Since the All-Star Break, Boston relievers own the eight-best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.45, while the Yankees are 27th at 5.38. Since right after the trade deadline, when the Yankees went out an added a slew of arms, New York's bullpen has the 28th-best ERA in baseball at 5.58.
The Yankees bullpen allowed nine runs in back-to-back lopsided losses to the Tigers earlier this week.
How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees this weekend
Given the importance of this weekend set at Fenway Park -- not to mention the hype surrounding the series -- two of the three games are being featured for national audiences. That means Red Sox fans will have to do some channel surfing (and stream surfing) over the three days.
Friday night's game is on Apple TV+, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. Saturday's 4:10 p.m. game is on NESN locally and MLB Network on the national stage.
New England fans won't have to choose between the Patriots and the Red Sox on Sunday, because the Red Sox and Yankees are getting the Sunday Night Baseball treatment on ESPN. First pitch for the series finale is set for 7:10 p.m.