Boston nor'easter weather forecast calls for strong wind gusts, heavy rain for part of holiday weekend
A nor'easter is set to hit Boston during what's always a busy holiday weekend for fall weather activities in New England.
Tens of thousands flock up north for the amazing hiking and fall foliage. The local farms will be buzzing with apple and pumpkin pickers. It is also a popular weekend for folks to shut down their lake homes and secure their boats for the upcoming winter.
The first real storm of the season is on our doorstep. The entire weekend will not be a washout, however.
Why is there a nor'easter in October?
When you hear the word "nor'easter," it might conjure up thoughts of wind-whipped snow or giant waves crashing over our sea walls. While sometimes that does occur, nor'easters are not just a winter phenomenon.
Storm season in New England typically begins around now, in October, and lasts through March or April. This is when we tend to get clashing air masses of warm and cold that feed on an infusion of energy from the warm Gulf Stream off the East Coast.
Let's break down this October nor'easter, the first of the young season.
Boston nor'easter timeline
A WBZ-TV NEXT Weather Alert is in effect for Sunday through Tuesday.
It will be near ideal weather up north for hiking or leaf peeping.
Sunday: Let's call Sunday a transition day. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Saturday and the cloud cover will thicken as the day wears on.
But all is not lost. There will still be some filtered sunshine in the area, especially to the north. Sunday remains a decent day for a road trip or a hike in central and northern New England.
The rain should hold off for most of the daylight hours on Sunday, except over extreme southeastern Massachusetts. There are likely to be some showers over the Cape and Islands by midday, continuing into the afternoon. The rest of the area should stay dry until later in the afternoon.
The northeast winds will start to pick up later in the day, gusting 25-35 mph over southeastern areas.
Essentially, the storm is just arriving Sunday evening and night.
Monday: The peak of the storm arrives Monday. This is when we expect the heaviest rain and strongest winds.
Monday has the look of a washout in southern New England. Still, northernmost New England should be mainly dry, albeit overcast and cool.
Northeast wind gusts will peak between 30 to 45 mph across the coastal plain, and between 45 to 60 mph on Cape Cod and the Islands. A wind advisory has been issued for Barnstable County, from 5 p.m. Sunday until 8 p.m. and a wind warning has been issued for Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard from 5 p.m. Sunday until 2 p.m. Monday.
There may be some isolated wind damage and power outages, but we do not expect any significant or widespread issues.
Tuesday: The storm will hang around to our south through the day on Tuesday, but it will begin to erode and weaken. So, you can expect continued showers, but less intense than Monday and also slowly diminishing winds. Still a very gray, wet and windy day, but with signs of improvement.
Rainfall totals from the entire storm will be highest across the Massachusetts east and southeast coasts. A conservative estimate is between 1-3", but there is a chance of isolated pockets reaching as high as 4-5".
This is largely good news given our recent drought status however, if too much falls all at once, there may be some localized flooding.
Lesser totals are expected to the north and west.
Coastal flooding from nor'easter
The National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory starting Sunday afternoon for most of our coastline. Minor coastal flooding is possible in low-lying areas near the shore.
Thankfully, the astronomical tides will be lowering each day.
Forecasts call for about a half foot of inundation on vulnerable coastal roads, but this would not put the Boston area in any significant flood threat.
Finally, the seas will be very angry and churned up early next week. Wave heights just offshore are expect to be 5-10 feet or higher.
As always, the WBZ NEXT Weather Team will keep you updated and covered throughout the storm. Stick with us on WBZ-TV, CBS News Boston and WBZ.com